Will the Bank cut rates on 18 June? What to expect

Where rates stand now

The Bank of England has held its base rate at 3.75% since December 2025. At the most recent decision, on 30 April, the Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to hold — and tellingly, the lone dissenter wanted a rise to 4%, not a cut. It was the second consecutive hold, and the third meeting in a row without a move.

Inflation has been the swing factor. CPI ran at 3.3% in the year to March before easing to 2.8% in April as the energy price cap fell, but the Bank has warned it could climb again later in the year if the Middle East conflict keeps energy costs high.

What markets expect on 18 June

The next decision lands on 18 June, and the market’s answer is clear: pricing derived from SONIA futures puts the chance of another hold at around 96%. Sterling swap rates — which drive fixed mortgage pricing — eased through April and May, consistent with rates staying near current levels rather than rising.

Near-term cuts, widely expected at the start of the year, have been pushed back by the war. The risk that remains is, if anything, a rise rather than a cut — but that reflects the single hawkish MPC vote and a roughly one-in-twenty market probability, not a base case.

The signal to watch

If a hold is all but priced in, the real information is in the language. The Bank publishes its reasoning alongside the decision, and a shift toward words like “less restrictive” or “easing” would be the first hint that cuts are back on the agenda for later in the year. Until then, the message is patience, not pivots.

What it means for your mortgage

For anyone on a tracker or standard variable rate — where the average is north of 7% — a held base rate means no relief but no fresh pain either. For those coming off a fix, two- and five-year deals sit around 5.6-5.7% on average, so the choice is between certainty now and a bet on cuts the market no longer expects soon.

The practical move is to review your position rather than wait on a forecast. You can model the numbers with the repayment calculator, and a Clearview adviser can line up a deal you can lock ahead of the decision.