Will the Bank cut rates on 18 June? What to expect

Where rates stand now

The Bank of England has held its base rate at 3.75% since December 2025. At the most recent decision, on 30 April, the Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to hold. The one member who broke ranks wanted a rise to 4%, not a cut, which tells you where the pressure sits. It was the second consecutive hold, and the third meeting in a row without a move.

Inflation has been the swing factor. Consumer price inflation (CPI) ran at 3.3% in the year to March before easing to 2.8% in April as the energy price cap fell. The Bank has warned it could climb again later in the year if the Middle East conflict keeps energy costs high.

What markets expect on 18 June

The next decision lands on 18 June, and the market’s answer is clear. Pricing derived from SONIA futures, a market gauge of where rates are heading, puts the chance of another hold at around 96%. Sterling swap rates, which drive fixed mortgage pricing, eased through April and May, consistent with rates staying near current levels rather than rising.

Near-term cuts, widely expected at the start of the year, have been pushed back by the war. If anything, the remaining risk leans towards a rise rather than a cut, though that reflects the single hawkish MPC vote and a market probability of roughly one in twenty, not a base case.

The signal to watch

If a hold is all but priced in, the real information is in the language. The Bank publishes its reasoning alongside the decision, and a shift toward words like “less restrictive” or “easing” would be the first hint that cuts are back on the agenda for later in the year. Until that language changes, the sensible read is to stay patient.

What it means for your mortgage

If you are on a tracker or standard variable rate (SVR), where the average sits north of 7%, a held base rate brings no relief, but no fresh pain either. For anyone coming off a fixed deal, two- and five-year fixes average around 5.6-5.7%, so the question is whether to take the certainty of fixing now or wait on cuts the market no longer expects any time soon.

The practical move is to review where you stand rather than wait on a forecast. You can model the numbers with our repayment calculator, and if you are weighing up when to remortgage, a Clearview adviser can line up a deal you can lock ahead of the decision.